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AE Zakakiou vs Ethnikos Achna — 1. Division 2019

AE Zakakiou
AE Zakakiou
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ethnikos Achna
Ethnikos Achna
11/3/20231. Division1. Division · Round 10Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

AE Zakakiou27%
×Draw21%
Ethnikos Achna52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AE Zakakiou
1.44
Ethnikos Achna
2.06

Ethnikos Achna creates 43% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 101 away

creates per match

AE Zakakiou
0.95
Ethnikos Achna
1.22

allows per match

AE Zakakiou
2.90
Ethnikos Achna
1.94

finishing

AE Zakakiou+0.00on par
Ethnikos Achna+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AE Zakakiou ↓

Ethnikos Achna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

AE Zakakiou or draw
48%
AE Zakakiou or Ethnikos Achna
79%
Draw or Ethnikos Achna
73%

Winning margin

AE Zakakiou wins by 2+
12%
Ethnikos Achna wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

AE Zakakiou 1+ goals
76%
AE Zakakiou 2+ goals
42%
AE Zakakiou 3+ goals
18%
Ethnikos Achna 1+ goals
87%
Ethnikos Achna 2+ goals
61%
Ethnikos Achna 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

AE Zakakiou (draw refunded)
34%
Ethnikos Achna (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AE Zakakiou at home — creates 0.95, concedes 2.90 · 20 matches

Ethnikos Achna away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.94 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AE Zakakiou attack 0.95 + Ethnikos Achna defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.44

Ethnikos Achna attack 1.22 + AE Zakakiou defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

AE Zakakiou scores more
27%
level
21%
Ethnikos Achna scores more
52%

Ethnikos Achna at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ethnikos Achna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AE Zakakiou vs Ethnikos Achna

AE Zakakiou and Ethnikos Achna drew 1-1 in 1. Division on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi in Larnaca.