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Ethiopia Nigd Bank vs Bahardar — Premier League 2019

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bahardar
Bahardar
5/14/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Hawassa University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ethiopia Nigd Bank37%
×Draw29%
Bahardar34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.16
Bahardar
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 103 away

creates per match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.47
Bahardar
1.16

allows per match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.04
Bahardar
0.85

finishing

Ethiopia Nigd Bank+0.00on par
Bahardar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethiopia Nigd Bank ↓

Bahardar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ethiopia Nigd Bank or draw
66%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank or Bahardar
71%
Draw or Bahardar
63%

Winning margin

Ethiopia Nigd Bank wins by 2+
15%
Bahardar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ethiopia Nigd Bank 1+ goals
69%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 2+ goals
32%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 3+ goals
11%
Bahardar 1+ goals
67%
Bahardar 2+ goals
30%
Bahardar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ethiopia Nigd Bank (draw refunded)
52%
Bahardar (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethiopia Nigd Bank at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

Bahardar away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank attack 1.47 + Bahardar defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.16

Bahardar attack 1.16 + Ethiopia Nigd Bank defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ethiopia Nigd Bank scores more
37%
level
29%
Bahardar scores more
34%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ethiopia Nigd Bank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ethiopia Nigd Bank 0–0 Bahardar

Ethiopia Nigd Bank and Bahardar drew 0-0 in Premier League on May 14, 2025.

The match was played at Hawassa University Stadium in Hawassa.