Bahardar 3–0 Ethiopia Nigd Bank: Result & Stats

Bahardar

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Ethiopia Nigd Bank

12/4/2024

Premier League · Round 10Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Bahardar35%

×Draw30%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BahardarExpected goals in this matchEthiopia Nigd Bank

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.08

Bahardar

1.07

Ethiopia Nigd Bank

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 52 away

1.12

creates per match

1.23

0.94

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Bahardar

1.12

Ethiopia Nigd Bank

1.23

allows per match

Bahardar

0.94

Ethiopia Nigd Bank

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bahardar+0.00on par

Ethiopia Nigd Bank+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahardar ↓

Ethiopia Nigd Bank →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Bahardar or draw

65%

Bahardar or Ethiopia Nigd Bank

70%

Draw or Ethiopia Nigd Bank

65%

Winning margin

Bahardar wins by 2+

14%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bahardar 1+ goals

66%

Bahardar 2+ goals

29%

Bahardar 3+ goals

9%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank 1+ goals

66%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank 2+ goals

29%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bahardar (draw refunded)

50%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahardar at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.94 · 100 matches

Ethiopia Nigd Bank away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.02 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahardar attack 1.12 + Ethiopia Nigd Bank defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.07

Ethiopia Nigd Bank attack 1.23 + Bahardar defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Bahardar scores more

35%

level

30%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank scores more

35%

Bahardar at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Bahardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff