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Ethiopia Bunna vs Dire Dawa Kenema — Premier League 2019

Ethiopia Bunna
Ethiopia Bunna
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dire Dawa Kenema
Dire Dawa Kenema
5/1/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Hawassa University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Ethiopia Bunna45%
×Draw28%
Dire Dawa Kenema27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ethiopia Bunna
1.35
Dire Dawa Kenema
0.99

Ethiopia Bunna creates 36% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 100 away

creates per match

Ethiopia Bunna
1.47
Dire Dawa Kenema
0.99

allows per match

Ethiopia Bunna
0.99
Dire Dawa Kenema
1.24

finishing

Ethiopia Bunna+0.00on par
Dire Dawa Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethiopia Bunna ↓

Dire Dawa Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ethiopia Bunna or draw
73%
Ethiopia Bunna or Dire Dawa Kenema
72%
Draw or Dire Dawa Kenema
55%

Winning margin

Ethiopia Bunna wins by 2+
21%
Dire Dawa Kenema wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ethiopia Bunna 1+ goals
74%
Ethiopia Bunna 2+ goals
39%
Ethiopia Bunna 3+ goals
15%
Dire Dawa Kenema 1+ goals
63%
Dire Dawa Kenema 2+ goals
26%
Dire Dawa Kenema 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ethiopia Bunna (draw refunded)
62%
Dire Dawa Kenema (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethiopia Bunna at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.99 · 101 matches

Dire Dawa Kenema away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethiopia Bunna attack 1.47 + Dire Dawa Kenema defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Dire Dawa Kenema attack 0.99 + Ethiopia Bunna defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ethiopia Bunna scores more
45%
level
28%
Dire Dawa Kenema scores more
27%

Ethiopia Bunna at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ethiopia Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ethiopia Bunna 2–0 Dire Dawa Kenema

Ethiopia Bunna beat Dire Dawa Kenema 2-0 in Premier League on May 1, 2025.

The match was played at Hawassa University Stadium in Hawassa.