Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dire Dawa Kenema vs Ethiopia Bunna — Premier League 2019

Dire Dawa Kenema
Dire Dawa Kenema
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ethiopia Bunna
Ethiopia Bunna
1/8/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Dire Dawa Kenema30%
×Draw29%
Ethiopia Bunna41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dire Dawa Kenema
1.00
Ethiopia Bunna
1.23

Ethiopia Bunna creates 23% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

creates per match

Dire Dawa Kenema
0.97
Ethiopia Bunna
1.11

allows per match

Dire Dawa Kenema
1.34
Ethiopia Bunna
1.03

finishing

Dire Dawa Kenema+0.00on par
Ethiopia Bunna+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dire Dawa Kenema ↓

Ethiopia Bunna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dire Dawa Kenema or draw
59%
Dire Dawa Kenema or Ethiopia Bunna
71%
Draw or Ethiopia Bunna
70%

Winning margin

Dire Dawa Kenema wins by 2+
11%
Ethiopia Bunna wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Dire Dawa Kenema 1+ goals
63%
Dire Dawa Kenema 2+ goals
26%
Dire Dawa Kenema 3+ goals
8%
Ethiopia Bunna 1+ goals
71%
Ethiopia Bunna 2+ goals
35%
Ethiopia Bunna 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dire Dawa Kenema (draw refunded)
42%
Ethiopia Bunna (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dire Dawa Kenema at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.34 · 102 matches

Ethiopia Bunna away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dire Dawa Kenema attack 0.97 + Ethiopia Bunna defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.00

Ethiopia Bunna attack 1.11 + Dire Dawa Kenema defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dire Dawa Kenema scores more
30%
level
29%
Ethiopia Bunna scores more
41%

Ethiopia Bunna at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ethiopia Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dire Dawa Kenema vs Ethiopia Bunna

Dire Dawa Kenema and Ethiopia Bunna drew 0-0 in Premier League on January 8, 2025.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.