Ethiopia Bunna 1–1 Addis Ababa Ketema

Ethiopia Bunna

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Addis Ababa Ketema

6/20/2022

Premier League · Round 27Bahir Dar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ethiopia Bunna44%

×Draw27%

Addis Ababa Ketema29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ethiopia BunnaExpected goals in this matchAddis Ababa Ketema

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.09

Ethiopia Bunna

1.40

Addis Ababa Ketema

1.09

Ethiopia Bunna creates 28% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 15 away

1.47

creates per match

1.20

0.99

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Ethiopia Bunna

1.47

Addis Ababa Ketema

1.20

allows per match

Ethiopia Bunna

0.99

Addis Ababa Ketema

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ethiopia Bunna+0.00on par

Addis Ababa Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethiopia Bunna ↓

Addis Ababa Ketema →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ethiopia Bunna or draw

71%

Ethiopia Bunna or Addis Ababa Ketema

73%

Draw or Addis Ababa Ketema

56%

Winning margin

Ethiopia Bunna wins by 2+

21%

Addis Ababa Ketema wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ethiopia Bunna 1+ goals

75%

Ethiopia Bunna 2+ goals

41%

Ethiopia Bunna 3+ goals

17%

Addis Ababa Ketema 1+ goals

66%

Addis Ababa Ketema 2+ goals

30%

Addis Ababa Ketema 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ethiopia Bunna (draw refunded)

60%

Addis Ababa Ketema (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethiopia Bunna at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.99 · 101 matches

Addis Ababa Ketema away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethiopia Bunna attack 1.47 + Addis Ababa Ketema defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.40

Addis Ababa Ketema attack 1.20 + Ethiopia Bunna defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ethiopia Bunna scores more

44%

level

27%

Addis Ababa Ketema scores more

29%

Ethiopia Bunna at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ethiopia Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff