Addis Ababa Ketema 0–1 Ethiopia Bunna

Addis Ababa Ketema

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ethiopia Bunna

2/10/2022

Premier League · Round 12Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Addis Ababa Ketema33%

×Draw27%

Ethiopia Bunna40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Addis Ababa KetemaExpected goals in this matchEthiopia Bunna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.29

Addis Ababa Ketema

1.15

Ethiopia Bunna

1.29

Ethiopia Bunna creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 102 away

1.27

creates per match

1.11

1.47

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Addis Ababa Ketema

1.27

Ethiopia Bunna

1.11

allows per match

Addis Ababa Ketema

1.47

Ethiopia Bunna

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Addis Ababa Ketema+0.00on par

Ethiopia Bunna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Addis Ababa Ketema ↓

Ethiopia Bunna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Addis Ababa Ketema or draw

60%

Addis Ababa Ketema or Ethiopia Bunna

73%

Draw or Ethiopia Bunna

67%

Winning margin

Addis Ababa Ketema wins by 2+

13%

Ethiopia Bunna wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Addis Ababa Ketema 1+ goals

68%

Addis Ababa Ketema 2+ goals

32%

Addis Ababa Ketema 3+ goals

11%

Ethiopia Bunna 1+ goals

72%

Ethiopia Bunna 2+ goals

37%

Ethiopia Bunna 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Addis Ababa Ketema (draw refunded)

45%

Ethiopia Bunna (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Addis Ababa Ketema at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Ethiopia Bunna away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Addis Ababa Ketema attack 1.27 + Ethiopia Bunna defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

Ethiopia Bunna attack 1.11 + Addis Ababa Ketema defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Addis Ababa Ketema scores more

33%

level

27%

Ethiopia Bunna scores more

40%

Ethiopia Bunna at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ethiopia Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff