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Etar VT II vs Botev Vratsa II — Third League - Northwest 2018

Etar VT II
Etar VT II
FT
2 – 3
Botev Vratsa II
Botev Vratsa II
5/22/2022Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 32Stadion Trifon Ivanov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Etar VT II47%
×Draw23%
Botev Vratsa II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etar VT II
1.85
Botev Vratsa II
1.46

Etar VT II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 61 away

creates per match

Etar VT II
1.89
Botev Vratsa II
1.16

allows per match

Etar VT II
1.75
Botev Vratsa II
1.82

finishing

Etar VT II+0.00on par
Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etar VT II ↓

Botev Vratsa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Etar VT II or draw
69%
Etar VT II or Botev Vratsa II
77%
Draw or Botev Vratsa II
53%

Winning margin

Etar VT II wins by 2+
26%
Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Etar VT II 1+ goals
84%
Etar VT II 2+ goals
55%
Etar VT II 3+ goals
28%
Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals
77%
Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals
43%
Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Etar VT II (draw refunded)
60%
Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etar VT II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.75 · 83 matches

Botev Vratsa II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.82 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etar VT II attack 1.89 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.85

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.16 + Etar VT II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Etar VT II scores more
47%
level
23%
Botev Vratsa II scores more
31%

Etar VT II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Etar VT II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Etar VT II 2 – 3 Botev Vratsa II

Botev Vratsa II beat Etar VT II 3-2 in Third League - Northwest on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Trifon Ivanov in Veliko Tarnovo.