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Botev Vratsa II vs Etar VT II — Third League - Northwest 2018

Botev Vratsa II
Botev Vratsa II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Etar VT II
Etar VT II
10/14/2023Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 10Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Botev Vratsa II55%
×Draw22%
Etar VT II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Vratsa II
1.98
Etar VT II
1.22

Botev Vratsa II creates 62% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 85 away

creates per match

Botev Vratsa II
1.61
Etar VT II
0.85

allows per match

Botev Vratsa II
1.58
Etar VT II
2.35

finishing

Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par
Etar VT II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa II ↓

Etar VT II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa II or draw
77%
Botev Vratsa II or Etar VT II
78%
Draw or Etar VT II
45%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+
32%
Etar VT II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals
86%
Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals
59%
Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals
31%
Etar VT II 1+ goals
70%
Etar VT II 2+ goals
34%
Etar VT II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)
70%
Etar VT II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa II at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.58 · 62 matches

Etar VT II away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.35 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.61 + Etar VT II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.98

Etar VT II attack 0.85 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Botev Vratsa II scores more
55%
level
22%
Etar VT II scores more
23%

Botev Vratsa II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Botev Vratsa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botev Vratsa II 0 – 0 Etar VT II

Botev Vratsa II and Etar VT II drew 0-0 in Third League - Northwest on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Vratsa.