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Etar VT II vs Boruna Tsareva livada — Third League - Northwest 2018

Etar VT II
Etar VT II
FT
2 – 3
Boruna Tsareva livada
Boruna Tsareva livada
10/7/2023Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 9Stadion Trifon Ivanov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Etar VT II60%
×Draw20%
Boruna Tsareva livada20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etar VT II
2.25
Boruna Tsareva livada
1.23

Etar VT II creates 83% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 29 away

creates per match

Etar VT II
1.89
Boruna Tsareva livada
0.72

allows per match

Etar VT II
1.75
Boruna Tsareva livada
2.62

finishing

Etar VT II+0.00on par
Boruna Tsareva livada+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etar VT II ↓

Boruna Tsareva livada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Etar VT II or draw
80%
Etar VT II or Boruna Tsareva livada
80%
Draw or Boruna Tsareva livada
40%

Winning margin

Etar VT II wins by 2+
38%
Boruna Tsareva livada wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Etar VT II 1+ goals
89%
Etar VT II 2+ goals
65%
Etar VT II 3+ goals
39%
Boruna Tsareva livada 1+ goals
71%
Boruna Tsareva livada 2+ goals
35%
Boruna Tsareva livada 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Etar VT II (draw refunded)
75%
Boruna Tsareva livada (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etar VT II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.75 · 83 matches

Boruna Tsareva livada away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etar VT II attack 1.89 + Boruna Tsareva livada defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.25

Boruna Tsareva livada attack 0.72 + Etar VT II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Etar VT II scores more
60%
level
20%
Boruna Tsareva livada scores more
20%

Etar VT II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Etar VT II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Etar VT II 2–3 Boruna Tsareva livada

Boruna Tsareva livada beat Etar VT II 3-2 in Third League - Northwest on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Trifon Ivanov in Veliko Tarnovo.