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Boruna Tsareva livada vs Etar VT II — Third League - Northwest 2018

Boruna Tsareva livada
Boruna Tsareva livada
FT
0 – 3
Etar VT II
Etar VT II
4/20/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 24Stadion Tsareva Livada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Boruna Tsareva livada50%
×Draw21%
Etar VT II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boruna Tsareva livada
2.05
Etar VT II
1.53

Boruna Tsareva livada creates 34% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 85 away

creates per match

Boruna Tsareva livada
1.75
Etar VT II
0.85

allows per match

Boruna Tsareva livada
2.21
Etar VT II
2.35

finishing

Boruna Tsareva livada+0.00on par
Etar VT II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boruna Tsareva livada ↓

Etar VT II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Boruna Tsareva livada or draw
71%
Boruna Tsareva livada or Etar VT II
79%
Draw or Etar VT II
50%

Winning margin

Boruna Tsareva livada wins by 2+
29%
Etar VT II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Boruna Tsareva livada 1+ goals
87%
Boruna Tsareva livada 2+ goals
61%
Boruna Tsareva livada 3+ goals
33%
Etar VT II 1+ goals
78%
Etar VT II 2+ goals
45%
Etar VT II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Boruna Tsareva livada (draw refunded)
63%
Etar VT II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boruna Tsareva livada at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.21 · 28 matches

Etar VT II away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.35 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boruna Tsareva livada attack 1.75 + Etar VT II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.05

Etar VT II attack 0.85 + Boruna Tsareva livada defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Boruna Tsareva livada scores more
50%
level
21%
Etar VT II scores more
29%

Boruna Tsareva livada at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Boruna Tsareva livada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Boruna Tsareva livada 0–3 Etar VT II

Etar VT II beat Boruna Tsareva livada 3-0 in Third League - Northwest on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Tsareva Livada in Dryanovo.