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Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Cherno More Varna — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna
1/23/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo11%
×Draw17%
Cherno More Varna73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etar Veliko Tarnovo
0.83
Cherno More Varna
2.45

Cherno More Varna creates 195% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.00
Cherno More Varna
1.56

allows per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo
3.33
Cherno More Varna
0.67

finishing

Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par
Cherno More Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etar Veliko Tarnovo ↓

Cherno More Varna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–211%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Etar Veliko Tarnovo or draw
27%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo or Cherno More Varna
83%
Draw or Cherno More Varna
89%

Winning margin

Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+
3%
Cherno More Varna wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals
56%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals
20%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals
5%
Cherno More Varna 1+ goals
91%
Cherno More Varna 2+ goals
70%
Cherno More Varna 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)
13%
Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etar Veliko Tarnovo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Cherno More Varna away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 1.00 + Cherno More Varna defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Cherno More Varna attack 1.56 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more
11%
level
17%
Cherno More Varna scores more
73%

Cherno More Varna at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Cherno More Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Cherno More Varna

Cherno More Varna beat Etar Veliko Tarnovo 6-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 23, 2026.