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Cherno More Varna vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo — First League 2018

Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
8/4/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 4Stadion Ticha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Cherno More Varna55%
×Draw25%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cherno More Varna
1.56
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
0.81

Cherno More Varna creates 93% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 69 away

creates per match

Cherno More Varna
1.40
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
0.81

allows per match

Cherno More Varna
0.81
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.72

finishing

Cherno More Varna+0.00on par
Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherno More Varna ↓

Etar Veliko Tarnovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cherno More Varna or draw
81%
Cherno More Varna or Etar Veliko Tarnovo
75%
Draw or Etar Veliko Tarnovo
45%

Winning margin

Cherno More Varna wins by 2+
29%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cherno More Varna 1+ goals
79%
Cherno More Varna 2+ goals
46%
Cherno More Varna 3+ goals
21%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals
56%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals
19%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)
74%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherno More Varna at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.81 · 137 matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.72 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherno More Varna attack 1.40 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.56

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 0.81 + Cherno More Varna defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Cherno More Varna scores more
55%
level
25%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more
19%

Cherno More Varna at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Cherno More Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cherno More Varna vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo

Cherno More Varna beat Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2-1 in First League on August 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Ticha in Varna.