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Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Beroe — First League 2018

Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Beroe
Beroe
10/26/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 10Stadion Ivailo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo40%
×Draw28%
Beroe32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.27
Beroe
1.11

Etar Veliko Tarnovo creates 14% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 138 away

creates per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.08
Beroe
0.93

allows per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.29
Beroe
1.46

finishing

Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par
Beroe+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etar Veliko Tarnovo ↓

Beroe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Etar Veliko Tarnovo or draw
68%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo or Beroe
72%
Draw or Beroe
60%

Winning margin

Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+
18%
Beroe wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals
72%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals
36%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals
14%
Beroe 1+ goals
67%
Beroe 2+ goals
30%
Beroe 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)
55%
Beroe (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etar Veliko Tarnovo at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.29 · 66 matches

Beroe away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.46 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 1.08 + Beroe defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Beroe attack 0.93 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more
40%
level
28%
Beroe scores more
32%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Etar Veliko Tarnovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2–3 Beroe

Beroe beat Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3-2 in First League on October 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Ivailo in Veliko Târnovo.