Beroe 0–0 Etar Veliko Tarnovo: Result & Stats

Beroe

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

12/11/2023

First League · Round 20Stadion Beroe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Beroe50%

×Draw26%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeroeExpected goals in this matchEtar Veliko Tarnovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.91

Beroe

1.47

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

0.91

Beroe creates 62% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 69 away

1.22

creates per match

0.81

1.01

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Beroe

1.22

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

0.81

allows per match

Beroe

1.01

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beroe+0.00on par

Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beroe ↓

Etar Veliko Tarnovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Beroe or draw

77%

Beroe or Etar Veliko Tarnovo

74%

Draw or Etar Veliko Tarnovo

50%

Winning margin

Beroe wins by 2+

25%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Beroe 1+ goals

77%

Beroe 2+ goals

43%

Beroe 3+ goals

18%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals

60%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals

23%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Beroe (draw refunded)

68%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beroe at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 137 matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.72 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beroe attack 1.22 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.47

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 0.81 + Beroe defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Beroe scores more

50%

level

26%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more

23%

Beroe at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Beroe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff