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Estudiantes La Plata Res vs Boca Juniors Res. — Reserve League 2022

Estudiantes La Plata Res
Estudiantes La Plata Res
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Boca Juniors Res.
Boca Juniors Res.
7/18/2024Reserve LeagueReserve League · 2nd Phase - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Estudiantes La Plata Res37%
×Draw28%
Boca Juniors Res.35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estudiantes La Plata Res
1.19
Boca Juniors Res.
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 64 away

creates per match

Estudiantes La Plata Res
1.57
Boca Juniors Res.
1.34

allows per match

Estudiantes La Plata Res
0.97
Boca Juniors Res.
0.81

finishing

Estudiantes La Plata Res+0.00on par
Boca Juniors Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes La Plata Res ↓

Boca Juniors Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Estudiantes La Plata Res or draw
65%
Estudiantes La Plata Res or Boca Juniors Res.
72%
Draw or Boca Juniors Res.
63%

Winning margin

Estudiantes La Plata Res wins by 2+
16%
Boca Juniors Res. wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Estudiantes La Plata Res 1+ goals
70%
Estudiantes La Plata Res 2+ goals
33%
Estudiantes La Plata Res 3+ goals
12%
Boca Juniors Res. 1+ goals
69%
Boca Juniors Res. 2+ goals
32%
Boca Juniors Res. 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes La Plata Res (draw refunded)
51%
Boca Juniors Res. (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes La Plata Res at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.97 · 67 matches

Boca Juniors Res. away — creates 1.34, concedes 0.81 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes La Plata Res attack 1.57 + Boca Juniors Res. defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.19

Boca Juniors Res. attack 1.34 + Estudiantes La Plata Res defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Estudiantes La Plata Res scores more
37%
level
28%
Boca Juniors Res. scores more
35%

Estudiantes La Plata Res at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Estudiantes La Plata Res will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estudiantes La Plata Res vs Boca Juniors Res.

Estudiantes La Plata Res beat Boca Juniors Res. 1-0 in Reserve League on July 18, 2024.