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Boca Juniors Res. vs Estudiantes La Plata Res — Reserve League 2022

Boca Juniors Res.
Boca Juniors Res.
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Estudiantes La Plata Res
Estudiantes La Plata Res
2/7/2024Reserve LeagueReserve League · 1st Phase - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Boca Juniors Res.50%
×Draw27%
Estudiantes La Plata Res23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boca Juniors Res.
1.40
Estudiantes La Plata Res
0.84

Boca Juniors Res. creates 67% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 62 away

creates per match

Boca Juniors Res.
1.82
Estudiantes La Plata Res
1.13

allows per match

Boca Juniors Res.
0.55
Estudiantes La Plata Res
0.97

finishing

Boca Juniors Res.+0.00on par
Estudiantes La Plata Res+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boca Juniors Res. ↓

Estudiantes La Plata Res →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Boca Juniors Res. or draw
77%
Boca Juniors Res. or Estudiantes La Plata Res
73%
Draw or Estudiantes La Plata Res
50%

Winning margin

Boca Juniors Res. wins by 2+
24%
Estudiantes La Plata Res wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Boca Juniors Res. 1+ goals
75%
Boca Juniors Res. 2+ goals
41%
Boca Juniors Res. 3+ goals
17%
Estudiantes La Plata Res 1+ goals
57%
Estudiantes La Plata Res 2+ goals
21%
Estudiantes La Plata Res 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Boca Juniors Res. (draw refunded)
69%
Estudiantes La Plata Res (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boca Juniors Res. at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.55 · 65 matches

Estudiantes La Plata Res away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.97 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boca Juniors Res. attack 1.82 + Estudiantes La Plata Res defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.40

Estudiantes La Plata Res attack 1.13 + Boca Juniors Res. defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Boca Juniors Res. scores more
50%
level
27%
Estudiantes La Plata Res scores more
23%

Boca Juniors Res. at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Boca Juniors Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Boca Juniors Res. vs Estudiantes La Plata Res

Boca Juniors Res. beat Estudiantes La Plata Res 1-0 in Reserve League on February 7, 2024.