Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0–1 Deportivo Maipu

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Maipu

9/4/2022

Primera Nacional · Round 32Estadio Ciudad de Río Cuarto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto44%

×Draw30%

Deportivo Maipu25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estudiantes de Rio CuartoExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Maipu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.80

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

1.17

Deportivo Maipu

0.80

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto creates 46% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 100 away

1.15

creates per match

0.94

0.67

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

1.15

Deportivo Maipu

0.94

allows per match

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

0.67

Deportivo Maipu

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto+0.00on par

Deportivo Maipu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto ↓

Deportivo Maipu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto or draw

75%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto or Deportivo Maipu

70%

Draw or Deportivo Maipu

56%

Winning margin

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto wins by 2+

19%

Deportivo Maipu wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1+ goals

69%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 2+ goals

33%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 3+ goals

11%

Deportivo Maipu 1+ goals

55%

Deportivo Maipu 2+ goals

19%

Deportivo Maipu 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (draw refunded)

64%

Deportivo Maipu (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.67 · 113 matches

Deportivo Maipu away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.18 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto attack 1.15 + Deportivo Maipu defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Deportivo Maipu attack 0.94 + Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto scores more

44%

level

30%

Deportivo Maipu scores more

25%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff