Deportivo Maipu 1–0 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

Deportivo Maipu

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

7/26/2021

Primera Nacional · Round 18Estadio Omar Higinio Sperdutti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Deportivo Maipu40%

×Draw32%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MaipuExpected goals in this matchEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.80

Deportivo Maipu

1.02

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

0.80

Deportivo Maipu creates 27% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 108 away

1.19

creates per match

0.75

0.86

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Deportivo Maipu

1.19

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

0.75

allows per match

Deportivo Maipu

0.86

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Maipu+0.00on par

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Maipu ↓

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Deportivo Maipu or draw

72%

Deportivo Maipu or Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

68%

Draw or Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

60%

Winning margin

Deportivo Maipu wins by 2+

16%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportivo Maipu 1+ goals

64%

Deportivo Maipu 2+ goals

27%

Deportivo Maipu 3+ goals

8%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1+ goals

55%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 2+ goals

19%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Maipu (draw refunded)

59%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Maipu at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.86 · 102 matches

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.85 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Maipu attack 1.19 + Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.02

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto attack 0.75 + Deportivo Maipu defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo Maipu scores more

40%

level

32%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto scores more

28%

Deportivo Maipu at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Maipu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff