Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0–0 Atletico DE Rafaela

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atletico DE Rafaela

11/14/2023

Primera Nacional · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstadio Ciudad de Río Cuarto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto47%

×Draw31%

Atletico DE Rafaela23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estudiantes de Rio CuartoExpected goals in this matchAtletico DE Rafaela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.72

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

1.18

Atletico DE Rafaela

0.72

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto creates 64% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 110 away

1.15

creates per match

0.76

0.67

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

1.15

Atletico DE Rafaela

0.76

allows per match

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

0.67

Atletico DE Rafaela

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto+0.00on par

Atletico DE Rafaela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto ↓

Atletico DE Rafaela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto or draw

77%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto or Atletico DE Rafaela

69%

Draw or Atletico DE Rafaela

53%

Winning margin

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto wins by 2+

21%

Atletico DE Rafaela wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1+ goals

69%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 2+ goals

33%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 3+ goals

12%

Atletico DE Rafaela 1+ goals

51%

Atletico DE Rafaela 2+ goals

16%

Atletico DE Rafaela 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (draw refunded)

68%

Atletico DE Rafaela (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.67 · 113 matches

Atletico DE Rafaela away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto attack 1.15 + Atletico DE Rafaela defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.18

Atletico DE Rafaela attack 0.76 + Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto scores more

47%

level

31%

Atletico DE Rafaela scores more

23%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff