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Atletico DE Rafaela vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — Primera Nacional 2026

Atletico DE Rafaela
Atletico DE Rafaela
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
11/9/2023Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstadio Ciudad de Río Cuarto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Atletico DE Rafaela39%
×Draw32%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico DE Rafaela
1.03
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
0.85

Atletico DE Rafaela creates 21% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 108 away

creates per match

Atletico DE Rafaela
1.21
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
0.75

allows per match

Atletico DE Rafaela
0.95
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
0.85

finishing

Atletico DE Rafaela+0.00on par
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico DE Rafaela ↓

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Atletico DE Rafaela or draw
71%
Atletico DE Rafaela or Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
68%
Draw or Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
61%

Winning margin

Atletico DE Rafaela wins by 2+
15%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atletico DE Rafaela 1+ goals
64%
Atletico DE Rafaela 2+ goals
28%
Atletico DE Rafaela 3+ goals
9%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1+ goals
57%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 2+ goals
21%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atletico DE Rafaela (draw refunded)
57%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico DE Rafaela at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.95 · 110 matches

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.85 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico DE Rafaela attack 1.21 + Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.03

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto attack 0.75 + Atletico DE Rafaela defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atletico DE Rafaela scores more
39%
level
32%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto scores more
29%

Atletico DE Rafaela at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atletico DE Rafaela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Atletico DE Rafaela 0–0 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

Atletico DE Rafaela and Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto drew 0-0 in Primera Nacional on November 9, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Río Cuarto in Ciudad de Río Cuarto, Provincia de Córdoba.