Estudiantes de Merida FC 2–0 Deportivo Anzoategui

Estudiantes de Merida FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Anzoategui

8/22/2018

Primera División · Clausura - 6Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano de Mérida (Mérida)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Estudiantes de Merida FC53%

×Draw24%

Deportivo Anzoategui23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estudiantes de Merida FCExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Anzoategui

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.00

Estudiantes de Merida FC

1.66

Deportivo Anzoategui

1.00

Estudiantes de Merida FC creates 66% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 26 away

1.51

creates per match

0.92

1.08

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Estudiantes de Merida FC

1.51

Deportivo Anzoategui

0.92

allows per match

Estudiantes de Merida FC

1.08

Deportivo Anzoategui

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estudiantes de Merida FC+0.00on par

Deportivo Anzoategui+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes de Merida FC ↓

Deportivo Anzoategui →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Estudiantes de Merida FC or draw

77%

Estudiantes de Merida FC or Deportivo Anzoategui

76%

Draw or Deportivo Anzoategui

47%

Winning margin

Estudiantes de Merida FC wins by 2+

28%

Deportivo Anzoategui wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Estudiantes de Merida FC 1+ goals

81%

Estudiantes de Merida FC 2+ goals

49%

Estudiantes de Merida FC 3+ goals

23%

Deportivo Anzoategui 1+ goals

63%

Deportivo Anzoategui 2+ goals

26%

Deportivo Anzoategui 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes de Merida FC (draw refunded)

70%

Deportivo Anzoategui (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes de Merida FC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.08 · 140 matches

Deportivo Anzoategui away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes de Merida FC attack 1.51 + Deportivo Anzoategui defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.66

Deportivo Anzoategui attack 0.92 + Estudiantes de Merida FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Estudiantes de Merida FC scores more

53%

level

24%

Deportivo Anzoategui scores more

23%

Estudiantes de Merida FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Estudiantes de Merida FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff