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Deportivo Anzoategui vs Estudiantes de Merida FC — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Anzoategui
Deportivo Anzoategui
CANC
00:00
Estudiantes de Merida FC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
9/28/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 13Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Deportivo Anzoategui37%
×Draw27%
Estudiantes de Merida FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Anzoategui
1.29
Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 138 away

creates per match

Deportivo Anzoategui
1.00
Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.19

allows per match

Deportivo Anzoategui
1.33
Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.57

finishing

Deportivo Anzoategui+0.00on par
Estudiantes de Merida FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Anzoategui ↓

Estudiantes de Merida FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Anzoategui or draw
64%
Deportivo Anzoategui or Estudiantes de Merida FC
73%
Draw or Estudiantes de Merida FC
63%

Winning margin

Deportivo Anzoategui wins by 2+
17%
Estudiantes de Merida FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Deportivo Anzoategui 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo Anzoategui 2+ goals
37%
Deportivo Anzoategui 3+ goals
14%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 1+ goals
72%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 2+ goals
36%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Anzoategui (draw refunded)
51%
Estudiantes de Merida FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Anzoategui at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

Estudiantes de Merida FC away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.57 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Anzoategui attack 1.00 + Estudiantes de Merida FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Estudiantes de Merida FC attack 1.19 + Deportivo Anzoategui defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Deportivo Anzoategui scores more
37%
level
27%
Estudiantes de Merida FC scores more
36%

Deportivo Anzoategui at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Deportivo Anzoategui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Deportivo Anzoategui host Estudiantes de Merida FC

September 28, 2019: Deportivo Anzoategui take on Estudiantes de Merida FC in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Deportivo Anzoategui host Estudiantes de Merida FC at Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.