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Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Caracas FC — Primera División 2018

Estudiantes de Merida FC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Caracas FC
Caracas FC
2/1/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 140+ matches

Estudiantes de Merida FC39%
×Draw28%
Caracas FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.25
Caracas FC
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 140 home / 146 away

creates per match

Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.51
Caracas FC
1.22

allows per match

Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.08
Caracas FC
1.00

finishing

Estudiantes de Merida FC+0.00on par
Caracas FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes de Merida FC ↓

Caracas FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Estudiantes de Merida FC or draw
66%
Estudiantes de Merida FC or Caracas FC
72%
Draw or Caracas FC
61%

Winning margin

Estudiantes de Merida FC wins by 2+
17%
Caracas FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Estudiantes de Merida FC 1+ goals
71%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 2+ goals
36%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 3+ goals
13%
Caracas FC 1+ goals
68%
Caracas FC 2+ goals
32%
Caracas FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes de Merida FC (draw refunded)
53%
Caracas FC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes de Merida FC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.08 · 140 matches

Caracas FC away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes de Merida FC attack 1.51 + Caracas FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Caracas FC attack 1.22 + Estudiantes de Merida FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Estudiantes de Merida FC scores more
39%
level
28%
Caracas FC scores more
34%

Estudiantes de Merida FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Estudiantes de Merida FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Estudiantes de Merida FC 2–2 Caracas FC

Estudiantes de Merida FC and Caracas FC drew 2-2 in Primera División on February 1, 2026.