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Caracas FC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC — Primera División 2018

Caracas FC
Caracas FC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Estudiantes de Merida FC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
8/15/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 4Estadio Nacional Brígido Iriarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Caracas FC48%
×Draw25%
Estudiantes de Merida FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caracas FC
1.58
Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.10

Caracas FC creates 44% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 138 away

creates per match

Caracas FC
1.58
Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.19

allows per match

Caracas FC
1.01
Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.57

finishing

Caracas FC+0.00on par
Estudiantes de Merida FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caracas FC ↓

Estudiantes de Merida FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Caracas FC or draw
74%
Caracas FC or Estudiantes de Merida FC
75%
Draw or Estudiantes de Merida FC
52%

Winning margin

Caracas FC wins by 2+
25%
Estudiantes de Merida FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Caracas FC 1+ goals
79%
Caracas FC 2+ goals
47%
Caracas FC 3+ goals
21%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 1+ goals
67%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 2+ goals
30%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Caracas FC (draw refunded)
65%
Estudiantes de Merida FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caracas FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.01 · 144 matches

Estudiantes de Merida FC away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.57 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caracas FC attack 1.58 + Estudiantes de Merida FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.58

Estudiantes de Merida FC attack 1.19 + Caracas FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Caracas FC scores more
48%
level
25%
Estudiantes de Merida FC scores more
26%

Caracas FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Caracas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Caracas FC 2–3 Estudiantes de Merida FC

Estudiantes de Merida FC beat Caracas FC 3-2 in Primera División on August 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional Brígido Iriarte in Caracas.