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Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Atletico Venezuela — Primera División 2018

Estudiantes de Merida FC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
11/7/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Group A - 8Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Estudiantes de Merida FC48%
×Draw26%
Atletico Venezuela26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.52
Atletico Venezuela
1.06

Estudiantes de Merida FC creates 43% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 60 away

creates per match

Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.51
Atletico Venezuela
1.03

allows per match

Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.08
Atletico Venezuela
1.53

finishing

Estudiantes de Merida FC+0.00on par
Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes de Merida FC ↓

Atletico Venezuela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Estudiantes de Merida FC or draw
74%
Estudiantes de Merida FC or Atletico Venezuela
74%
Draw or Atletico Venezuela
52%

Winning margin

Estudiantes de Merida FC wins by 2+
24%
Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Estudiantes de Merida FC 1+ goals
78%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 2+ goals
45%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 3+ goals
20%
Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
65%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
29%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes de Merida FC (draw refunded)
64%
Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes de Merida FC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.08 · 140 matches

Atletico Venezuela away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes de Merida FC attack 1.51 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.52

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.03 + Estudiantes de Merida FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Estudiantes de Merida FC scores more
48%
level
26%
Atletico Venezuela scores more
26%

Estudiantes de Merida FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Estudiantes de Merida FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Atletico Venezuela

Estudiantes de Merida FC beat Atletico Venezuela 2-0 in Primera División on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado in Valencia.