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Atletico Venezuela vs Estudiantes de Merida FC — Primera División 2018

Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
CANC
20:00
Estudiantes de Merida FC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
8/23/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 25Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Atletico Venezuela42%
×Draw26%
Estudiantes de Merida FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Venezuela
1.43
Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.21

Atletico Venezuela creates 18% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 138 away

creates per match

Atletico Venezuela
1.29
Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.19

allows per match

Atletico Venezuela
1.24
Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.57

finishing

Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par
Estudiantes de Merida FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Venezuela ↓

Estudiantes de Merida FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atletico Venezuela or draw
68%
Atletico Venezuela or Estudiantes de Merida FC
74%
Draw or Estudiantes de Merida FC
58%

Winning margin

Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
20%
Estudiantes de Merida FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
76%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
42%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
17%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 1+ goals
70%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 2+ goals
34%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
57%
Estudiantes de Merida FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Venezuela at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 59 matches

Estudiantes de Merida FC away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.57 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.29 + Estudiantes de Merida FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.43

Estudiantes de Merida FC attack 1.19 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atletico Venezuela scores more
42%
level
26%
Estudiantes de Merida FC scores more
32%

Atletico Venezuela at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atletico Venezuela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Atletico Venezuela host Estudiantes de Merida FC

August 23, 2020: Atletico Venezuela take on Estudiantes de Merida FC in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Atletico Venezuela host Estudiantes de Merida FC at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.