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Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Angostura FC — Primera División 2018

Estudiantes de Merida FC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Angostura FC
Angostura FC
7/6/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 18Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano de Mérida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Estudiantes de Merida FC50%
×Draw25%
Angostura FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.62
Angostura FC
1.08

Estudiantes de Merida FC creates 50% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 30 away

creates per match

Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.51
Angostura FC
1.07

allows per match

Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.08
Angostura FC
1.73

finishing

Estudiantes de Merida FC+0.00on par
Angostura FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes de Merida FC ↓

Angostura FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Estudiantes de Merida FC or draw
75%
Estudiantes de Merida FC or Angostura FC
75%
Draw or Angostura FC
50%

Winning margin

Estudiantes de Merida FC wins by 2+
26%
Angostura FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Estudiantes de Merida FC 1+ goals
80%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 2+ goals
48%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 3+ goals
22%
Angostura FC 1+ goals
66%
Angostura FC 2+ goals
29%
Angostura FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes de Merida FC (draw refunded)
66%
Angostura FC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes de Merida FC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.08 · 140 matches

Angostura FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes de Merida FC attack 1.51 + Angostura FC defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.62

Angostura FC attack 1.07 + Estudiantes de Merida FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Estudiantes de Merida FC scores more
50%
level
25%
Angostura FC scores more
25%

Estudiantes de Merida FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Estudiantes de Merida FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Angostura FC

Estudiantes de Merida FC beat Angostura FC 5-0 in Primera División on July 6, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano de Mérida in Mérida.