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Angostura FC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC — Primera División 2018

Angostura FC
Angostura FC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Estudiantes de Merida FC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
5/7/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 13Estadio Ricardo Tulio Maya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Angostura FC41%
×Draw27%
Estudiantes de Merida FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angostura FC
1.35
Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.16

Angostura FC creates 16% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 138 away

creates per match

Angostura FC
1.13
Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.19

allows per match

Angostura FC
1.13
Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.57

finishing

Angostura FC+0.00on par
Estudiantes de Merida FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angostura FC ↓

Estudiantes de Merida FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Angostura FC or draw
68%
Angostura FC or Estudiantes de Merida FC
73%
Draw or Estudiantes de Merida FC
59%

Winning margin

Angostura FC wins by 2+
19%
Estudiantes de Merida FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Angostura FC 1+ goals
74%
Angostura FC 2+ goals
39%
Angostura FC 3+ goals
15%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 1+ goals
69%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 2+ goals
32%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Angostura FC (draw refunded)
56%
Estudiantes de Merida FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angostura FC at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Estudiantes de Merida FC away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.57 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angostura FC attack 1.13 + Estudiantes de Merida FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Estudiantes de Merida FC attack 1.19 + Angostura FC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Angostura FC scores more
41%
level
27%
Estudiantes de Merida FC scores more
32%

Angostura FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Angostura FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Angostura FC 2–3 Estudiantes de Merida FC

Estudiantes de Merida FC beat Angostura FC 3-2 in Primera División on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Ricardo Tulio Maya in Ciudad Bolívar.