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Estudiantes Caracas vs Atletico Venezuela — Primera División 2018

Estudiantes Caracas
Estudiantes Caracas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
11/10/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 19Estadio Olímpico Hermanos Ghersi Páez (Maracay)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Estudiantes Caracas37%
×Draw27%
Atletico Venezuela36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estudiantes Caracas
1.27
Atletico Venezuela
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 60 away

creates per match

Estudiantes Caracas
1.00
Atletico Venezuela
1.03

allows per match

Estudiantes Caracas
1.44
Atletico Venezuela
1.53

finishing

Estudiantes Caracas+0.00on par
Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes Caracas ↓

Atletico Venezuela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Estudiantes Caracas or draw
64%
Estudiantes Caracas or Atletico Venezuela
73%
Draw or Atletico Venezuela
63%

Winning margin

Estudiantes Caracas wins by 2+
16%
Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Estudiantes Caracas 1+ goals
72%
Estudiantes Caracas 2+ goals
36%
Estudiantes Caracas 3+ goals
14%
Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
71%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
35%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes Caracas (draw refunded)
51%
Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes Caracas at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.44 · 36 matches

Atletico Venezuela away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes Caracas attack 1.00 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.03 + Estudiantes Caracas defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Estudiantes Caracas scores more
37%
level
27%
Atletico Venezuela scores more
36%

Estudiantes Caracas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Estudiantes Caracas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Estudiantes Caracas 1–1 Atletico Venezuela

Estudiantes Caracas and Atletico Venezuela drew 1-1 in Primera División on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Hermanos Ghersi Páez (Maracay).