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Atletico Venezuela vs Estudiantes Caracas — Primera División 2018

Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Estudiantes Caracas
Estudiantes Caracas
2/18/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 4Estadio Nacional Brígido Iriarte (Caracas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Atletico Venezuela51%
×Draw24%
Estudiantes Caracas25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Venezuela
1.72
Estudiantes Caracas
1.14

Atletico Venezuela creates 51% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 35 away

creates per match

Atletico Venezuela
1.29
Estudiantes Caracas
1.03

allows per match

Atletico Venezuela
1.24
Estudiantes Caracas
2.14

finishing

Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par
Estudiantes Caracas+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Venezuela ↓

Estudiantes Caracas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Atletico Venezuela or draw
75%
Atletico Venezuela or Estudiantes Caracas
76%
Draw or Estudiantes Caracas
49%

Winning margin

Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
28%
Estudiantes Caracas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
82%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
51%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
25%
Estudiantes Caracas 1+ goals
68%
Estudiantes Caracas 2+ goals
32%
Estudiantes Caracas 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
67%
Estudiantes Caracas (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Venezuela at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 59 matches

Estudiantes Caracas away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.14 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.29 + Estudiantes Caracas defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.72

Estudiantes Caracas attack 1.03 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atletico Venezuela scores more
51%
level
24%
Estudiantes Caracas scores more
25%

Atletico Venezuela at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atletico Venezuela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Venezuela vs Estudiantes Caracas

Atletico Venezuela beat Estudiantes Caracas 3-1 in Primera División on February 18, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional Brígido Iriarte (Caracas).