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Estrella Del Sur vs Defensores Glew — Torneo Promocional Amateur 2026

Estrella Del Sur
Estrella Del Sur
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Defensores Glew
Defensores Glew
8/3/2024Torneo Promocional AmateurTorneo Promocional Amateur · Clausura - 3Predio Club Estrella Del Sur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Estrella Del Sur50%
×Draw27%
Defensores Glew23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estrella Del Sur
1.40
Defensores Glew
0.85

Estrella Del Sur creates 65% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 21 away

creates per match

Estrella Del Sur
1.69
Defensores Glew
1.24

allows per match

Estrella Del Sur
0.46
Defensores Glew
1.10

finishing

Estrella Del Sur+0.00on par
Defensores Glew+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrella Del Sur ↓

Defensores Glew →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Estrella Del Sur or draw
77%
Estrella Del Sur or Defensores Glew
73%
Draw or Defensores Glew
50%

Winning margin

Estrella Del Sur wins by 2+
24%
Defensores Glew wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Estrella Del Sur 1+ goals
75%
Estrella Del Sur 2+ goals
41%
Estrella Del Sur 3+ goals
17%
Defensores Glew 1+ goals
57%
Defensores Glew 2+ goals
21%
Defensores Glew 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Estrella Del Sur (draw refunded)
69%
Defensores Glew (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrella Del Sur at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

Defensores Glew away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrella Del Sur attack 1.69 + Defensores Glew defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.40

Defensores Glew attack 1.24 + Estrella Del Sur defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Estrella Del Sur scores more
50%
level
27%
Defensores Glew scores more
23%

Estrella Del Sur at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Estrella Del Sur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Promocional Amateur: Estrella Del Sur 3–1 Defensores Glew

Estrella Del Sur beat Defensores Glew 3-1 in Torneo Promocional Amateur on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Predio Club Estrella Del Sur in Alejandro Korn, Provincia de Buenos Aires.