Defensores Glew 1–2 Estrella Del Sur

Defensores Glew

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Estrella Del Sur

3/9/2024

Torneo Promocional Amateur · Apertura - 3Estadio Lorenzo Arandilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Defensores Glew40%

×Draw25%

Estrella Del Sur35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defensores GlewExpected goals in this matchEstrella Del Sur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.38

Defensores Glew

1.49

Estrella Del Sur

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 14 away

2.05

creates per match

1.43

1.32

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Defensores Glew

2.05

Estrella Del Sur

1.43

allows per match

Defensores Glew

1.32

Estrella Del Sur

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Defensores Glew+0.00on par

Estrella Del Sur+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores Glew ↓

Estrella Del Sur →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Defensores Glew or draw

65%

Defensores Glew or Estrella Del Sur

75%

Draw or Estrella Del Sur

60%

Winning margin

Defensores Glew wins by 2+

19%

Estrella Del Sur wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Defensores Glew 1+ goals

77%

Defensores Glew 2+ goals

44%

Defensores Glew 3+ goals

19%

Estrella Del Sur 1+ goals

75%

Estrella Del Sur 2+ goals

40%

Estrella Del Sur 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Defensores Glew (draw refunded)

53%

Estrella Del Sur (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores Glew at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

Estrella Del Sur away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores Glew attack 2.05 + Estrella Del Sur defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.49

Estrella Del Sur attack 1.43 + Defensores Glew defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Defensores Glew scores more

40%

level

25%

Estrella Del Sur scores more

35%

Defensores Glew at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Defensores Glew will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff