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Estrella de Berisso vs Deportivo Camioneros — Torneo Promocional Amateur 2026

Estrella de Berisso
Estrella de Berisso
FT
1 – 1
Deportivo Camioneros
Deportivo Camioneros
2/28/2024Torneo Promocional AmateurTorneo Promocional Amateur · Apertura - 1Cancha Estrella De Berisso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Estrella de Berisso21%
×Draw26%
Deportivo Camioneros52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estrella de Berisso
0.83
Deportivo Camioneros
1.48

Deportivo Camioneros creates 78% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 13 away

creates per match

Estrella de Berisso
0.82
Deportivo Camioneros
2.23

allows per match

Estrella de Berisso
0.73
Deportivo Camioneros
0.85

finishing

Estrella de Berisso+0.00on par
Deportivo Camioneros+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrella de Berisso ↓

Deportivo Camioneros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Estrella de Berisso or draw
48%
Estrella de Berisso or Deportivo Camioneros
74%
Draw or Deportivo Camioneros
79%

Winning margin

Estrella de Berisso wins by 2+
7%
Deportivo Camioneros wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Estrella de Berisso 1+ goals
56%
Estrella de Berisso 2+ goals
20%
Estrella de Berisso 3+ goals
5%
Deportivo Camioneros 1+ goals
77%
Deportivo Camioneros 2+ goals
43%
Deportivo Camioneros 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Estrella de Berisso (draw refunded)
29%
Deportivo Camioneros (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrella de Berisso at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.73 · 22 matches

Deportivo Camioneros away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrella de Berisso attack 0.82 + Deportivo Camioneros defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.83

Deportivo Camioneros attack 2.23 + Estrella de Berisso defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Estrella de Berisso scores more
21%
level
26%
Deportivo Camioneros scores more
52%

Deportivo Camioneros at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Deportivo Camioneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estrella de Berisso vs Deportivo Camioneros

Estrella de Berisso and Deportivo Camioneros drew 1-1 in Torneo Promocional Amateur on February 28, 2024.

The match was played at Cancha Estrella De Berisso in Berisso, Provincia de Buenos Aires.