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Deportivo Camioneros vs Estrella de Berisso — Torneo Promocional Amateur 2026

Deportivo Camioneros
Deportivo Camioneros
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Estrella de Berisso
Estrella de Berisso
7/22/2024Torneo Promocional AmateurTorneo Promocional Amateur · Clausura - 1Estadio Hugo Moyano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Deportivo Camioneros63%
×Draw21%
Estrella de Berisso16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Camioneros
1.96
Estrella de Berisso
0.85

Deportivo Camioneros creates 131% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 21 away

creates per match

Deportivo Camioneros
2.36
Estrella de Berisso
1.00

allows per match

Deportivo Camioneros
0.71
Estrella de Berisso
1.57

finishing

Deportivo Camioneros+0.00on par
Estrella de Berisso+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Camioneros ↓

Estrella de Berisso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Deportivo Camioneros or draw
84%
Deportivo Camioneros or Estrella de Berisso
79%
Draw or Estrella de Berisso
37%

Winning margin

Deportivo Camioneros wins by 2+
38%
Estrella de Berisso wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Deportivo Camioneros 1+ goals
86%
Deportivo Camioneros 2+ goals
58%
Deportivo Camioneros 3+ goals
31%
Estrella de Berisso 1+ goals
57%
Estrella de Berisso 2+ goals
21%
Estrella de Berisso 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Camioneros (draw refunded)
80%
Estrella de Berisso (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Camioneros at home — creates 2.36, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Estrella de Berisso away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Camioneros attack 2.36 + Estrella de Berisso defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.96

Estrella de Berisso attack 1.00 + Deportivo Camioneros defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Deportivo Camioneros scores more
63%
level
21%
Estrella de Berisso scores more
16%

Deportivo Camioneros at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Deportivo Camioneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Promocional Amateur: Deportivo Camioneros 1–1 Estrella de Berisso

Deportivo Camioneros and Estrella de Berisso drew 1-1 in Torneo Promocional Amateur on July 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Hugo Moyano in Estéban Echeverría, Provincia de Buenos Aires.