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Estradense vs Choco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Estradense
Estradense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Choco
Choco
4/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Campo Municipal do Concello da Estrada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Estradense47%
×Draw28%
Choco25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estradense
1.36
Choco
0.92

Estradense creates 48% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 59 away

creates per match

Estradense
1.31
Choco
0.92

allows per match

Estradense
0.91
Choco
1.42

finishing

Estradense+0.00on par
Choco+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estradense ↓

Choco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Estradense or draw
75%
Estradense or Choco
72%
Draw or Choco
53%

Winning margin

Estradense wins by 2+
22%
Choco wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Estradense 1+ goals
74%
Estradense 2+ goals
39%
Estradense 3+ goals
16%
Choco 1+ goals
60%
Choco 2+ goals
23%
Choco 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Estradense (draw refunded)
65%
Choco (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estradense at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.91 · 111 matches

Choco away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.42 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estradense attack 1.31 + Choco defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.36

Choco attack 0.92 + Estradense defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Estradense scores more
47%
level
28%
Choco scores more
25%

Estradense at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Estradense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Estradense 1–1 Choco

Estradense and Choco drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Municipal do Concello da Estrada in A Estrada.