Choco 0–1 Estradense: Result & Stats

Choco

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Estradense

4/6/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Campo Municipal de Santa Mariña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Choco43%

×Draw26%

Estradense31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChocoExpected goals in this matchEstradense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.20

Choco

1.47

Estradense

1.20

Choco creates 23% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 109 away

1.55

creates per match

1.24

1.16

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Choco

1.55

Estradense

1.24

allows per match

Choco

1.16

Estradense

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Choco+0.00on par

Estradense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Choco ↓

Estradense →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Choco or draw

69%

Choco or Estradense

74%

Draw or Estradense

57%

Winning margin

Choco wins by 2+

21%

Estradense wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Choco 1+ goals

77%

Choco 2+ goals

43%

Choco 3+ goals

18%

Estradense 1+ goals

70%

Estradense 2+ goals

34%

Estradense 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Choco (draw refunded)

58%

Estradense (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Choco at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches

Estradense away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.39 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Choco attack 1.55 + Estradense defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.47

Estradense attack 1.24 + Choco defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Choco scores more

43%

level

26%

Estradense scores more

31%

Choco at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Choco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff