Estradense 0–0 Celta de Vigo III: Result & Stats

Estradense

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Celta de Vigo III

10/5/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Campo Municipal do Concello da Estrada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Estradense40%

×Draw30%

Celta de Vigo III30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EstradenseExpected goals in this matchCelta de Vigo III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.96

Estradense

1.15

Celta de Vigo III

0.96

Estradense creates 20% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 66 away

1.31

creates per match

1.00

0.91

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Estradense

1.31

Celta de Vigo III

1.00

allows per match

Estradense

0.91

Celta de Vigo III

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estradense+0.00on par

Celta de Vigo III+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estradense ↓

Celta de Vigo III →

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Estradense or draw

70%

Estradense or Celta de Vigo III

70%

Draw or Celta de Vigo III

60%

Winning margin

Estradense wins by 2+

17%

Celta de Vigo III wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Estradense 1+ goals

68%

Estradense 2+ goals

32%

Estradense 3+ goals

11%

Celta de Vigo III 1+ goals

62%

Celta de Vigo III 2+ goals

25%

Celta de Vigo III 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Estradense (draw refunded)

57%

Celta de Vigo III (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Estradense at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.91 · 111 matches

Celta de Vigo III away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.98 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Estradense attack 1.31 + Celta de Vigo III defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.15

Celta de Vigo III attack 1.00 + Estradense defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Estradense scores more

40%

level

30%

Celta de Vigo III scores more

30%

Estradense at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Estradense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Estradense 0–0 Celta de Vigo III

Estradense and Celta de Vigo III drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Municipal do Concello da Estrada in A Estrada.

Estradense vs Celta de Vigo III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Estradense 0–0 Celta de Vigo III