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Celta de Vigo III vs Estradense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Celta de Vigo III
Celta de Vigo III
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Estradense
Estradense
5/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Barreiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Celta de Vigo III47%
×Draw24%
Estradense30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celta de Vigo III
1.72
Estradense
1.33

Celta de Vigo III creates 29% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 108 away

creates per match

Celta de Vigo III
2.03
Estradense
1.23

allows per match

Celta de Vigo III
1.44
Estradense
1.41

finishing

Celta de Vigo III+0.00on par
Estradense+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta de Vigo III ↓

Estradense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Celta de Vigo III or draw
70%
Celta de Vigo III or Estradense
76%
Draw or Estradense
53%

Winning margin

Celta de Vigo III wins by 2+
25%
Estradense wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Celta de Vigo III 1+ goals
82%
Celta de Vigo III 2+ goals
51%
Celta de Vigo III 3+ goals
25%
Estradense 1+ goals
74%
Estradense 2+ goals
38%
Estradense 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Celta de Vigo III (draw refunded)
61%
Estradense (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celta de Vigo III at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.44 · 66 matches

Estradense away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.41 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celta de Vigo III attack 2.03 + Estradense defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.72

Estradense attack 1.23 + Celta de Vigo III defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Celta de Vigo III scores more
47%
level
24%
Estradense scores more
30%

Celta de Vigo III at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Celta de Vigo III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Celta de Vigo III 0 – 2 Estradense

Estradense beat Celta de Vigo III 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Barreiro in Vigo.