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Estonia vs Belarus — Euro Championship 2024

Estonia
Estonia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Belarus
Belarus
E. Sorga 54'
M. Skavysh 90+2'
N. Naumov 48'
9/6/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 5A. Le Coq Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Estonia33%
×Draw24%
Belarus43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estonia
1.45
Belarus
1.68

Belarus creates 16% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Estonia
0.50
Belarus
0.60

allows per match

Estonia
2.75
Belarus
2.40

finishing

Estonia+0.00on par
Belarus+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estonia ↓

Belarus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Estonia or draw
57%
Estonia or Belarus
76%
Draw or Belarus
67%

Winning margin

Estonia wins by 2+
15%
Belarus wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Estonia 1+ goals
77%
Estonia 2+ goals
42%
Estonia 3+ goals
18%
Belarus 1+ goals
81%
Belarus 2+ goals
50%
Belarus 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Estonia (draw refunded)
44%
Belarus (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estonia at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Belarus away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estonia attack 0.50 + Belarus defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.45

Belarus attack 0.60 + Estonia defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Estonia scores more
33%
level
24%
Belarus scores more
43%

Belarus at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Belarus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
I. StasevichBelarusBelarus · M
8.1

Match Events

48'
N. Naumov↳ I. Stasevich
54'
E. Sorga↳ M. Käit
64'
I. Bakhar← N. Signevich
65'
Nikita Naumov
66'
Ivan Bakhar
77'
A. Dmitrijev← K. Vassiljev
77'
M. Skavysh← Y. Kovalev
83'
R. Sappinen← E. Sorga
86'
V. Sinyavskiy← H. Ojamaa
90+2'
M. Skavysh↳ S. Matveychik

Possession

54%Estonia

Shots

11Estonia

Pass accuracy

51%Estonia

Statistics

EstoniaBelarus
Overview
54%Possession46%
11Total Shots17
5Corners8
10Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots17
2On Target5
5Off Target8
4Blocked4
9Inside Box9
2Outside Box8
Passing
54%Possession46%
437Total Passes358
350Accurate Passes272
80%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls14
0Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Estonia vs Belarus

Belarus beat Estonia 2-1 in Euro Championship on September 6, 2019.

Goals: N. Naumov (48'), E. Sorga (54'), M. Skavysh (90+2').

Estonia controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 17.

The match was played at A. Le Coq Arena in Tallinn.