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Belarus vs Estonia — Euro Championship 2024

Belarus
Belarus
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Estonia
Estonia
10/10/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 7Stadyen Dynama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Belarus74%
×Draw18%
Estonia8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belarus
2.04
Estonia
0.50

Belarus creates 308% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Belarus
0.33
Estonia
0.00

allows per match

Belarus
1.00
Estonia
3.75

finishing

Belarus+0.00on par
Estonia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belarus ↓

Estonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Belarus or draw
92%
Belarus or Estonia
82%
Draw or Estonia
26%

Winning margin

Belarus wins by 2+
48%
Estonia wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Belarus 1+ goals
87%
Belarus 2+ goals
60%
Belarus 3+ goals
33%
Estonia 1+ goals
39%
Estonia 2+ goals
9%
Estonia 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Belarus (draw refunded)
90%
Estonia (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belarus at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Estonia away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belarus attack 0.33 + Estonia defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 2.04

Estonia attack 0.00 + Belarus defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Belarus scores more
74%
level
18%
Estonia scores more
8%

Belarus at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Belarus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
S. LepmetsEstoniaEstonia · G
8.5

Match Events

41'
Sergei Politevich
59'
I. Bakhar← P. Savitskiy
59'
F. Liivak← S. Zenjov
64'
D. Laptev← M. Skavysh
80'
R. Sappinen← E. Sorga
82'
Frank Liivak
83'
V. Lisakovich← E. Yablonskiy
89'
M. Miller← H. Ojamaa

Possession

47%Belarus

Shots

19Belarus

Pass accuracy

51%Belarus

Statistics

BelarusEstonia
Overview
47%Possession53%
19Total Shots9
7Corners3
10Fouls8
Shots
19Total Shots9
7On Target0
8Off Target6
4Blocked3
11Inside Box4
8Outside Box5
Passing
47%Possession53%
372Total Passes431
285Accurate Passes313
77%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
0Saves7
Discipline
10Fouls8
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Belarus vs Estonia

Belarus and Estonia drew 0-0 in Euro Championship on October 10, 2019.

Estonia controlled possession (53%) and registered 9 shots to 19.

The match was played at Stadyen Dynama in Minsk.