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Esteghlal Mollasani vs Damash Gilanian — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Mollasani
Esteghlal Mollasani
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Damash Gilanian
Damash Gilanian
2/20/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 20Ahvāz Takhti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Esteghlal Mollasani53%
×Draw28%
Damash Gilanian19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Mollasani
1.34
Damash Gilanian
0.67

Esteghlal Mollasani creates 100% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 65 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
1.04
Damash Gilanian
0.49

allows per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
0.84
Damash Gilanian
1.65

finishing

Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par
Damash Gilanian+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Mollasani ↓

Damash Gilanian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Esteghlal Mollasani or draw
81%
Esteghlal Mollasani or Damash Gilanian
72%
Draw or Damash Gilanian
47%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+
26%
Damash Gilanian wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals
74%
Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals
39%
Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals
15%
Damash Gilanian 1+ goals
49%
Damash Gilanian 2+ goals
15%
Damash Gilanian 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)
74%
Damash Gilanian (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Mollasani at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.84 · 67 matches

Damash Gilanian away — creates 0.49, concedes 1.65 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 1.04 + Damash Gilanian defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.34

Damash Gilanian attack 0.49 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Esteghlal Mollasani scores more
53%
level
28%
Damash Gilanian scores more
19%

Esteghlal Mollasani at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Esteghlal Mollasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esteghlal Mollasani vs Damash Gilanian

Esteghlal Mollasani beat Damash Gilanian 2-1 in Azadegan League on February 20, 2024.

The match was played at Ahvāz Takhti in Ahwaz.