Damash Gilanian 0–0 Esteghlal Mollasani

Damash Gilanian

FT

0 – 0

Esteghlal Mollasani

9/17/2023

Azadegan League · Round 3Dr. Azodi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Damash Gilanian41%

×Draw31%

Esteghlal Mollasani28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Damash GilanianExpected goals in this matchEsteghlal Mollasani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

0.86

Damash Gilanian

1.12

Esteghlal Mollasani

0.86

Damash Gilanian creates 30% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 68 away

0.93

creates per match

0.82

0.90

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Damash Gilanian

0.93

Esteghlal Mollasani

0.82

allows per match

Damash Gilanian

0.90

Esteghlal Mollasani

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Damash Gilanian+0.00on par

Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damash Gilanian ↓

Esteghlal Mollasani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Damash Gilanian or draw

72%

Damash Gilanian or Esteghlal Mollasani

69%

Draw or Esteghlal Mollasani

59%

Winning margin

Damash Gilanian wins by 2+

17%

Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Damash Gilanian 1+ goals

67%

Damash Gilanian 2+ goals

31%

Damash Gilanian 3+ goals

10%

Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals

58%

Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals

21%

Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Damash Gilanian (draw refunded)

60%

Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damash Gilanian at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.90 · 67 matches

Esteghlal Mollasani away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damash Gilanian attack 0.93 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.12

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 0.82 + Damash Gilanian defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Damash Gilanian scores more

41%

level

31%

Esteghlal Mollasani scores more

28%

Damash Gilanian at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Damash Gilanian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff