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Esteghlal Mollasani vs Chadormalu SC — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Mollasani
Esteghlal Mollasani
FT
1 – 0
Chadormalu SC
Chadormalu SC
2/13/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 22Ahvāz Takhti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Esteghlal Mollasani29%
×Draw32%
Chadormalu SC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Mollasani
0.82
Chadormalu SC
1.00

Chadormalu SC creates 22% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 31 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
1.04
Chadormalu SC
1.16

allows per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
0.84
Chadormalu SC
0.61

finishing

Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par
Chadormalu SC+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Mollasani ↓

Chadormalu SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Esteghlal Mollasani or draw
61%
Esteghlal Mollasani or Chadormalu SC
68%
Draw or Chadormalu SC
71%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+
9%
Chadormalu SC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals
56%
Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals
20%
Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals
5%
Chadormalu SC 1+ goals
63%
Chadormalu SC 2+ goals
26%
Chadormalu SC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)
43%
Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Mollasani at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.84 · 67 matches

Chadormalu SC away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 1.04 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.82

Chadormalu SC attack 1.16 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Esteghlal Mollasani scores more
29%
level
32%
Chadormalu SC scores more
39%

Chadormalu SC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chadormalu SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Esteghlal Mollasani 1–0 Chadormalu SC

Esteghlal Mollasani beat Chadormalu SC 1-0 in Azadegan League on February 13, 2023.

The match was played at Ahvāz Takhti in Ahwaz.