Chadormalu SC 0–1 Esteghlal Mollasani

Chadormalu SC

FT

0 – 1

Esteghlal Mollasani

9/20/2022

Azadegan League · Round 5Nasiri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Chadormalu SC47%

×Draw29%

Esteghlal Mollasani25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chadormalu SCExpected goals in this matchEsteghlal Mollasani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.86

Chadormalu SC

1.30

Esteghlal Mollasani

0.86

Chadormalu SC creates 51% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 68 away

1.29

creates per match

0.82

0.90

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Chadormalu SC

1.29

Esteghlal Mollasani

0.82

allows per match

Chadormalu SC

0.90

Esteghlal Mollasani

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par

Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chadormalu SC ↓

Esteghlal Mollasani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Chadormalu SC or draw

75%

Chadormalu SC or Esteghlal Mollasani

71%

Draw or Esteghlal Mollasani

53%

Winning margin

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+

22%

Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals

73%

Chadormalu SC 2+ goals

37%

Chadormalu SC 3+ goals

14%

Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals

58%

Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals

21%

Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)

65%

Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chadormalu SC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

Esteghlal Mollasani away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chadormalu SC attack 1.29 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.30

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 0.82 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Chadormalu SC scores more

47%

level

29%

Esteghlal Mollasani scores more

25%

Chadormalu SC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chadormalu SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff