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Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Shams Azar Qazvin — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Shams Azar Qazvin
Shams Azar Qazvin
J. Aghaeipour 78'
A. Vaziri 19'
A. M. Sarabadani 25' (pen)
4/5/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 28Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan42%
×Draw31%
Shams Azar Qazvin27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.11
Shams Azar Qazvin
0.84

Esteghlal Khuzestan creates 32% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 30 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.26
Shams Azar Qazvin
1.13

allows per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.55
Shams Azar Qazvin
0.97

finishing

Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par
Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Khuzestan ↓

Shams Azar Qazvin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw
73%
Esteghlal Khuzestan or Shams Azar Qazvin
69%
Draw or Shams Azar Qazvin
58%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
17%
Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
67%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
30%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
10%
Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals
57%
Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals
21%
Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
60%
Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Khuzestan at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.55 · 65 matches

Shams Azar Qazvin away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 1.26 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.11

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 1.13 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
42%
level
31%
Shams Azar Qazvin scores more
27%

Esteghlal Khuzestan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Esteghlal Khuzestan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
A. Vaziri
25'
A. M. SarabadaniPenalty
78'
J. Aghaeipour

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Shams Azar Qazvin

Esteghlal Khuzestan beat Shams Azar Qazvin 2-1 in Azadegan League on April 5, 2023.

Goals: A. Vaziri (19'), A. M. Sarabadani (25' pen), J. Aghaeipour (78').

The match was played at Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan in Ahvaz.