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Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Chooka Talesh — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
FT
0 – 0
Chooka Talesh
Chooka Talesh
12/5/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 3Ahvāz Takhti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan59%
×Draw26%
Chooka Talesh14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.49
Chooka Talesh
0.58

Esteghlal Khuzestan creates 157% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 33 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.25
Chooka Talesh
0.61

allows per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.55
Chooka Talesh
1.73

finishing

Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par
Chooka Talesh+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Khuzestan ↓

Chooka Talesh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw
86%
Esteghlal Khuzestan or Chooka Talesh
74%
Draw or Chooka Talesh
41%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
31%
Chooka Talesh wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
77%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
44%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
19%
Chooka Talesh 1+ goals
44%
Chooka Talesh 2+ goals
12%
Chooka Talesh 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
81%
Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Khuzestan at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.55 · 67 matches

Chooka Talesh away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 1.25 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.49

Chooka Talesh attack 0.61 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
59%
level
26%
Chooka Talesh scores more
14%

Esteghlal Khuzestan at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Esteghlal Khuzestan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Esteghlal Khuzestan 0–0 Chooka Talesh

Esteghlal Khuzestan and Chooka Talesh drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on December 5, 2020.

The match was played at Ahvāz Takhti in Ahwaz.