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Chooka Talesh vs Esteghlal Khuzestan — Azadegan League 2018

Chooka Talesh
Chooka Talesh
FT
1 – 3
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
4/13/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 20Sardar Jangal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Chooka Talesh34%
×Draw30%
Esteghlal Khuzestan37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chooka Talesh
1.04
Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 67 away

creates per match

Chooka Talesh
1.15
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.94

allows per match

Chooka Talesh
1.27
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.94

finishing

Chooka Talesh+0.00on par
Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chooka Talesh ↓

Esteghlal Khuzestan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Chooka Talesh or draw
63%
Chooka Talesh or Esteghlal Khuzestan
70%
Draw or Esteghlal Khuzestan
66%

Winning margin

Chooka Talesh wins by 2+
13%
Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Chooka Talesh 1+ goals
65%
Chooka Talesh 2+ goals
28%
Chooka Talesh 3+ goals
9%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
67%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
30%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)
48%
Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chooka Talesh at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.94 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chooka Talesh attack 1.15 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.04

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 0.94 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chooka Talesh scores more
34%
level
30%
Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
37%

Esteghlal Khuzestan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Esteghlal Khuzestan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Chooka Talesh 1–3 Esteghlal Khuzestan

Esteghlal Khuzestan beat Chooka Talesh 3-1 in Azadegan League on April 13, 2021.

The match was played at Sardar Jangal Stadium in Aqa Sayyed Sharif, Rasht.