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Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Chadormalu SC — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
FT
0 – 0
Chadormalu SC
Chadormalu SC
11/18/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 14Ghadir Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan36%
×Draw33%
Chadormalu SC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.94
Chadormalu SC
0.85

Esteghlal Khuzestan creates 11% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 31 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.26
Chadormalu SC
1.16

allows per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.55
Chadormalu SC
0.61

finishing

Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par
Chadormalu SC+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Khuzestan ↓

Chadormalu SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw
69%
Esteghlal Khuzestan or Chadormalu SC
67%
Draw or Chadormalu SC
64%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
13%
Chadormalu SC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
61%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
24%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
7%
Chadormalu SC 1+ goals
57%
Chadormalu SC 2+ goals
21%
Chadormalu SC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
54%
Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Khuzestan at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.55 · 65 matches

Chadormalu SC away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 1.26 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.94

Chadormalu SC attack 1.16 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
36%
level
33%
Chadormalu SC scores more
31%

Esteghlal Khuzestan at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Esteghlal Khuzestan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Esteghlal Khuzestan 0–0 Chadormalu SC

Esteghlal Khuzestan and Chadormalu SC drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on November 18, 2022.

The match was played at Ghadir Stadium in Ahwaz.