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Chadormalu SC vs Esteghlal Khuzestan — Azadegan League 2018

Chadormalu SC
Chadormalu SC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
M. Shek 90+3', 90'
J. Aghaeipour 45+2'
A. Vaziri 44' (pen)
5/4/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 31Nasiri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Chadormalu SC40%
×Draw30%
Esteghlal Khuzestan30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chadormalu SC
1.15
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.94

Chadormalu SC creates 22% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 63 away

creates per match

Chadormalu SC
1.29
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.97

allows per match

Chadormalu SC
0.90
Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.00

finishing

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par
Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chadormalu SC ↓

Esteghlal Khuzestan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Chadormalu SC or draw
70%
Chadormalu SC or Esteghlal Khuzestan
70%
Draw or Esteghlal Khuzestan
60%

Winning margin

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+
17%
Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals
68%
Chadormalu SC 2+ goals
32%
Chadormalu SC 3+ goals
11%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
61%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
24%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)
58%
Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chadormalu SC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.00 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chadormalu SC attack 1.29 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 0.97 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chadormalu SC scores more
40%
level
30%
Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
30%

Chadormalu SC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chadormalu SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
A. VaziriPenalty
45+2'
J. Aghaeipour
90'
M. Shek
90+3'
M. Shek

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chadormalu SC vs Esteghlal Khuzestan

Chadormalu SC and Esteghlal Khuzestan drew 2-2 in Azadegan League on May 4, 2023.

Goals: A. Vaziri (44' pen), J. Aghaeipour (45+2'), M. Shek (90', 90+3').

The match was played at Nasiri Stadium in Yazd.